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Red143
998317.1
461367.8
313255.6
Blue120
998510.4
558455.5
743352.3
76%Model gave it24%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15411650100200250143120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+15
+23Teleop
+25Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousBlue +15
3Leave3
5Coral scored#8
26Coral points41
29Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +38
19Coral scored#9
70Coral points34
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#2
12Processor points18
16Net points8
28Algae points26
98Total teleop60
Reef
10L4#8
7L3#5
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#22
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +23
0Foul points2
143Total score120

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.80.1
66.866.9
Auto9.2
Teleop46.5
End12.0
red by 12.3
55.50.1
54.254.3
Auto16.7
Teleop32.3
End6.5
Second
55.60.1
54.654.8
Auto11.2
Teleop38.7
End5.6
red by 3.3
52.30.1
51.051.1
Auto10.9
Teleop39.0
End2.3
Third
9983
#22
17.10.2
15.715.9
Auto3.6
Teleop12.7
End1.0
red by 6.7
9985
#29
10.40.1
8.68.7
Auto5.0
Teleop5.4
End0.1