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Red80
650820.8
313242.0
75839.5
Blue74
558456.0
1050813.4
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions74744050607080901001108074

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+6Teleop
+4Endgame
+6Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave6
1Coral scored#2
7Coral points10
13Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +9
12Coral scored#8
43Coral points30
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
6Processor points6
12Net points16
18Algae points22
61Total teleop52
Reef
4L4#5
4L3#3
4L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
17Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
2Foul points0
80Total score74

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.01.0
40.741.7
Auto8.7
Teleop27.6
End5.7
blue by 14.0
56.00.8
48.449.2
Auto11.7
Teleop36.4
End8.0
Second
6508
#11
20.81.0
19.020.0
Auto4.0
Teleop13.7
End3.1
red by 7.4
13.40.8
13.914.7
Auto3.5
Teleop8.1
End1.8
Third
7583
#37
9.51.0
7.88.8
Auto3.7
Teleop6.1
End-0.3
red by 2.7
6.80.8
3.64.4
Auto1.5
Teleop4.5
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsMissed53%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsMissed60%Barge oddsMissed