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Red115
608319.4
313242.0
558456.0
Blue73
1034220.1
473923.4
651045.2
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1169140608010014016018011573

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+30Teleop
+42Endgame
+42Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
0Leave3
5Coral scored#4
26Coral points22
26Total auto25
TeleoperatedRed +29
16Coral scored#9
59Coral points34
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
6Processor points6
8Net points4
14Algae points10
73Total teleop44
Reef
8L4#5
5L3#3
5L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
24Game pieces#15
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +42
0Foul points0
115Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.00.7
49.249.9
Auto11.7
Teleop36.4
End8.0
red by 10.8
45.21.3
42.841.5
Auto10.5
Teleop28.0
End6.7
Second
42.00.7
41.742.5
Auto8.7
Teleop27.6
End5.7
red by 18.6
23.41.3
24.623.3
Auto5.7
Teleop13.1
End4.5
Third
6083
#16
19.40.7
15.716.4
Auto3.6
Teleop13.1
End2.7
blue by 0.7
20.11.3
20.218.9
Auto4.1
Teleop15.4
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
73%Auto oddsEarned77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
62%Barge oddsEarned84%Barge oddsMissed