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Red67
999024.7
999613.6
998015.3
Blue16
99742.5
999510.8
997610.6
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions57522030407080906716

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+55Teleop
+59Endgame
+51Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
6Leave0
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
9Total auto0
TeleoperatedRed +46
12Coral scored#2
42Coral points6
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
52Total teleop6
Reef
4L4#0
4L3#1
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#0
15Game pieces#2
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +51
0Foul points8
67Total score16

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9990
#12
24.74.1
12.116.2
Auto3.3
Teleop20.1
End1.3
red by 13.9
9995
#21
10.80.8
3.02.2
Auto1.7
Teleop7.9
End1.2
Second
9980
#14
15.34.1
9.613.8
Auto3.5
Teleop9.7
End2.1
red by 4.7
9976
#18
10.60.8
4.63.8
Auto3.0
Teleop6.3
End1.3
Third
13.64.1
8.012.2
Auto2.8
Teleop8.9
End1.8
red by 11.1
9974
#24
2.50.8
7.36.5
Auto-0.4
Teleop1.8
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
48%Auto oddsMissed34%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
16%Barge oddsMissed46%Barge oddsMissed