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Red16
99785.7
652412.7
919124.5
Blue32
943312.9
99898.3
999411.5
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions43401020305060701632

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+6
Endgame+8
Fouls+16
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave3
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points6
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +3
2Coral scored#3
8Coral points11
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
8Total teleop11
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
0L2#1
0L1 · trough#1
2Game pieces#4
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +16
0Foul points8
16Total score32

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.53.1
26.623.6
Auto5.8
Teleop15.0
End3.8
red by 11.6
9433
#13
12.90.3
11.911.6
Auto3.8
Teleop6.6
End2.5
Second
6524
#25
12.73.3
10.26.9
Auto2.5
Teleop8.0
End2.2
red by 1.2
11.50.3
8.88.5
Auto4.0
Teleop5.6
End1.9
Third
9978
#29
5.73.1
8.65.5
Auto2.1
Teleop3.2
End0.4
blue by 2.7
9989
#22
8.30.3
5.95.6
Auto2.2
Teleop4.8
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
24%Auto oddsMissed10%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsMissed20%Barge oddsMissed