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Red36
99868.8
1031613.2
999712.5
Blue92
999613.6
927516.2
478851.9
8%Model gave it92%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions31960501503692

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+13
Teleop+48
Endgame+50
Fouls+56
AutonomousBlue +13
6Leave9
1Coral scored#3
6Coral points16
12Total auto25
TeleoperatedBlue +35
4Coral scored#9
14Coral points33
1Processor algae#1
0Net algae#4
6Processor points6
0Net points16
6Algae points22
20Total teleop55
Reef
1L4#5
2L3#4
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#17
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +56
0Foul points6
36Total score92

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
13.20.3
13.112.9
Auto1.6
Teleop10.3
End1.4
blue by 38.6
51.90.3
54.654.3
Auto11.5
Teleop36.6
End3.8
Second
9997
#10
12.50.4
10.09.6
Auto4.3
Teleop6.7
End1.5
blue by 3.7
9275
#15
16.20.4
16.015.5
Auto4.4
Teleop9.5
End2.3
Third
9986
#11
8.80.4
7.87.4
Auto4.5
Teleop3.1
End1.2
blue by 4.8
13.60.4
13.913.5
Auto2.8
Teleop8.9
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
20%Auto oddsEarned77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed12%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
13%Barge oddsMissed14%Barge oddsMissed