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Red72
905913.7
1050622.7
775511.6
Blue104
9059B13.7
991B12.6
498C45.3
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions46740206010012014016072104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+30
Endgame+38
Fouls+32
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave9
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points3
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +27
10Coral scored#16
35Coral points58
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
6Processor points6
4Net points8
10Algae points14
45Total teleop72
Reef
4L4#4
3L3#6
3L2#5
1L1 · trough#2
13Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +32
12Foul points6
72Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.70.7
22.723.5
Auto2.9
Teleop18.6
End1.2
blue by 22.5
45.32.5
39.942.5
Auto6.0
Teleop33.7
End5.6
Second
9059
#28
13.70.7
11.912.7
Auto3.6
Teleop8.2
End2.0
Level
13.72.5
12.014.5
Auto3.3
Teleop8.7
End1.7
Third
7755
#24
11.60.7
8.99.6
Auto4.3
Teleop4.1
End3.1
blue by 1.0
991B
#26
12.61.9
11.613.5
Auto2.0
Teleop9.1
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
15%Auto oddsMissed35%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
15%Barge oddsMissed39%Barge oddsEarned