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Red172
404139.4
7865.8
176880.2
Blue132
870844.0
4847.8
856733.6
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions195134050100150250300172132

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+20Teleop
+42Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave0
8Coral scored#5
41Coral points23
44Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +1
20Coral scored#21
72Coral points77
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
12Processor points12
20Net points16
32Algae points28
104Total teleop105
Reef
11L4#11
5L3#8
6L2#3
6L1 · trough#4
35Game pieces#32
BargeRed +22
24Cage & park2
24Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +40
0Foul points2
172Total score132

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
80.20.4
68.869.2
Auto23.9
Teleop46.3
End9.9
red by 32.4
48
#48
47.80.1
41.341.4
Auto8.9
Teleop31.9
End7.1
Second
78
#6
65.80.4
60.260.7
Auto19.1
Teleop36.4
End10.3
red by 21.7
8708
#18
44.00.1
42.642.8
Auto10.3
Teleop28.6
End5.1
Third
4041
#16
39.40.4
27.728.1
Auto5.8
Teleop27.0
End6.5
red by 5.8
8567
#39
33.60.1
35.735.9
Auto5.5
Teleop24.2
End3.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
87%Coral oddsEarned40%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
88%Barge oddsEarned59%Barge oddsMissed