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Red58
318225.4
872425.7
279131.9
Blue220
176880.2
205335.9
346760.9
3%Model gave it97%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8920305015025030058220

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+41
Teleop+148
Endgame+150
Fouls+162
AutonomousBlue +41
6Leave6
2Coral scored#10
10Coral points51
16Total auto57
TeleoperatedBlue +107
6Coral scored#25
20Coral points91
0Processor algae#2
1Net algae#7
0Processor points12
4Net points28
4Algae points40
24Total teleop131
Reef
3L4#13
2L3#11
2L2#4
1L1 · trough#7
9Game pieces#44
BargeBlue +2
12Cage & park14
12Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +162
6Foul points18
58Total score220

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2791
#38
31.93.1
33.430.3
Auto8.0
Teleop22.1
End1.7
blue by 48.3
80.21.7
73.675.3
Auto23.9
Teleop46.3
End9.9
Second
8724
#61
25.73.1
29.226.1
Auto4.1
Teleop19.8
End1.8
blue by 35.2
3467
#21
60.91.7
59.260.9
Auto13.0
Teleop38.1
End9.8
Third
3182
#57
25.43.1
30.327.2
Auto6.6
Teleop15.8
End3.0
blue by 10.5
2053
#45
35.91.7
33.134.8
Auto9.2
Teleop25.3
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsMissed95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
41%Coral oddsMissed90%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
28%Barge oddsMissed81%Barge oddsEarned