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Red148
19074.3
179680.7
23836.1
Blue124
17527.2
46754.3
944320.8
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions24199050150200300350148124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+8Teleop
+32Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave0
8Coral scored#5
41Coral points26
47Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +13
14Coral scored#17
51Coral points60
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
6Processor points6
8Net points12
14Algae points18
65Total teleop78
Reef
10L4#9
6L3#7
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
25Game pieces#26
BargeRed +24
36Cage & park12
36Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
0Foul points8
148Total score124

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
80.73.6
87.784.1
Auto22.0
Teleop47.2
End11.5
red by 26.4
467
#54
54.30.5
53.253.7
Auto12.6
Teleop34.6
End7.1
Second
190
#4
74.33.6
73.369.6
Auto23.8
Teleop41.6
End8.9
red by 47.1
175
#33
27.20.5
29.430.0
Auto5.1
Teleop19.4
End2.7
Third
238
#12
36.13.6
32.628.9
Auto5.2
Teleop27.1
End3.8
red by 15.3
9443
#58
20.80.5
17.718.2
Auto4.2
Teleop12.5
End4.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned74%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
99%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
86%Barge oddsEarned71%Barge oddsEarned