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Red154
105834.2
159145.5
404139.4
Blue162
147410.1
346760.9
234249.3
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13985050100200250154162

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+6
Endgame+4
Fouls+8
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave6
7Coral scored#8
34Coral points38
37Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +1
19Coral scored#17
69Coral points62
1Processor algae#2
6Net algae#6
6Processor points12
24Net points24
30Algae points36
99Total teleop98
Reef
9L4#7
9L3#8
4L2#6
4L1 · trough#4
33Game pieces#33
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +8
2Foul points6
154Total score162

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1591
#42
45.50.7
44.845.5
Auto12.7
Teleop28.1
End4.7
blue by 15.4
3467
#21
60.90.8
60.561.3
Auto13.0
Teleop38.1
End9.8
Second
4041
#16
39.40.7
38.639.4
Auto5.8
Teleop27.0
End6.5
blue by 10.0
49.30.8
48.949.7
Auto14.3
Teleop30.1
End5.0
Third
1058
#47
34.20.7
33.534.2
Auto9.5
Teleop19.7
End5.0
red by 24.1
1474
#60
10.10.8
9.310.1
Auto1.5
Teleop6.9
End1.7