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Red199
632874.0
7865.8
944320.8
Blue158
46754.3
173533.7
870844.0
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16713850100150200250300199158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+15Auto
+63Teleop
+51Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousRed +15
3Leave3
10Coral scored#7
48Coral points33
51Total auto36
TeleoperatedRed +48
26Coral scored#18
94Coral points66
4Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
24Processor points12
16Net points8
40Algae points20
134Total teleop86
Reef
13L4#8
12L3#5
6L2#8
5L1 · trough#4
44Game pieces#29
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +41
0Foul points10
199Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6328
#40
74.01.0
72.373.2
Auto17.1
Teleop47.7
End9.2
red by 19.7
467
#54
54.30.4
53.954.3
Auto12.6
Teleop34.6
End7.1
Second
78
#6
65.81.0
64.065.0
Auto19.1
Teleop36.4
End10.3
red by 21.7
8708
#18
44.00.4
43.744.0
Auto10.3
Teleop28.6
End5.1
Third
9443
#58
20.81.0
19.120.0
Auto4.2
Teleop12.5
End4.2
blue by 12.9
1735
#35
33.70.4
33.333.7
Auto2.4
Teleop25.9
End5.4