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Red59
944914.1
486218.9
955012.8
Blue51
462731.5
71678.9
719010.8
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions49480204060805951

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+4Teleop
+4Endgame
+8Fouls
Autonomouslevel
9Leave9
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
9Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +4
6Coral scored#6
20Coral points20
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
0Processor points0
8Net points4
8Algae points4
28Total teleop24
Reef
2L4#2
2L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#7
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +8
18Foul points14
59Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4862
#42
18.90.7
15.514.8
Auto4.6
Teleop13.8
End0.4
blue by 12.6
4627
#19
31.51.3
16.715.5
Auto6.9
Teleop22.0
End2.6
Second
9449
#27
14.10.7
12.511.8
Auto4.1
Teleop8.6
End1.4
red by 3.3
7190
#40
10.81.3
12.311.0
Auto2.5
Teleop5.9
End2.5
Third
9550
#34
12.80.7
13.612.9
Auto3.3
Teleop7.5
End2.0
red by 4.0
7167
#39
8.91.3
16.315.0
Auto1.8
Teleop6.0
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
32%Auto oddsMissed24%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsMissed20%Barge oddsMissed