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Red48
964117.6
755130.5
904420.5
Blue9
1038411.9
97196.7
71678.9
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions73470100150489

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+15Teleop
+27Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
9Leave0
1Coral scored#1
4Coral points3
13Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +5
3Coral scored#1
9Coral points4
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
9Total teleop4
Reef
1L4#0
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
4Game pieces#2
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +39
12Foul points0
48Total score9

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7551
#11
30.53.4
24.421.0
Auto5.5
Teleop17.9
End7.2
red by 18.5
11.94.2
20.516.3
Auto3.2
Teleop6.6
End2.1
Second
9044
#15
20.53.4
19.616.2
Auto5.7
Teleop14.0
End0.9
red by 11.7
7167
#39
8.94.2
15.010.8
Auto1.8
Teleop6.0
End1.0
Third
9641
#23
17.63.4
19.716.3
Auto4.4
Teleop10.7
End2.5
red by 10.9
9719
#41
6.74.2
8.74.5
Auto1.3
Teleop2.9
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
41%Auto oddsEarned37%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
51%Barge oddsEarned26%Barge oddsMissed