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Red50
1052714.5
432722.8
955012.8
Blue77
425337.5
964914.9
728723.8
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions59760501001502005077

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+33
Endgame+21
Fouls+27
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave3
1Coral scored#2
3Coral points10
6Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +26
5Coral scored#9
18Coral points34
1Processor algae#2
1Net algae#2
6Processor points12
4Net points8
10Algae points20
28Total teleop54
Reef
2L4#4
1L3#3
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
8Game pieces#15
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +27
0Foul points6
50Total score77

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4327
#48
22.80.1
26.426.3
Auto3.0
Teleop18.0
End1.8
blue by 14.7
4253
#13
37.50.9
37.238.1
Auto9.1
Teleop23.7
End4.7
Second
14.50.1
14.013.9
Auto4.2
Teleop7.5
End2.8
blue by 9.3
7287
#17
23.80.9
15.716.6
Auto5.3
Teleop15.0
End3.5
Third
9550
#34
12.80.1
10.810.7
Auto3.3
Teleop7.5
End2.0
blue by 2.1
9649
#29
14.90.9
10.010.9
Auto1.6
Teleop10.8
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
18%Auto oddsMissed32%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
14%Barge oddsEarned39%Barge oddsEarned