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Red117
639017.8
462731.5
546849.4
Blue36
833916.1
1052714.5
767310.4
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10246015011736

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+16Auto
+59Teleop
+61Endgame
+81Fouls
AutonomousRed +16
0Leave0
4Coral scored#1
22Coral points6
22Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +43
11Coral scored#4
41Coral points16
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#0
6Processor points0
12Net points0
18Algae points0
59Total teleop16
Reef
7L4#2
3L3#2
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#0
19Game pieces#5
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +81
20Foul points0
117Total score36

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.41.1
37.838.9
Auto10.0
Teleop31.4
End7.9
red by 33.3
8339
#38
16.11.3
11.610.3
Auto5.4
Teleop8.2
End2.5
Second
4627
#19
31.51.1
27.528.6
Auto6.9
Teleop22.0
End2.6
red by 17.0
14.51.3
18.517.2
Auto4.2
Teleop7.5
End2.8
Third
6390
#33
17.81.1
19.120.2
Auto4.2
Teleop12.3
End1.4
red by 7.4
7673
#35
10.41.3
15.013.7
Auto2.8
Teleop4.4
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned38%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsEarned