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Red43
640411.4
756349.6
1029610.1
Blue101
703330.4
917515.6
945936.4
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions88865060708010011043101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+60
Endgame+58
Fouls+58
AutonomousBlue +14
9Leave0
0Coral scored#5
0Coral points23
9Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +46
4Coral scored#14
14Coral points50
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
0Processor points6
4Net points8
4Algae points14
18Total teleop64
Reef
1L4#6
1L3#6
1L2#4
1L1 · trough#3
5Game pieces#22
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +58
0Foul points0
43Total score101

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.63.0
48.945.9
Auto9.7
Teleop32.4
End7.5
red by 13.2
36.41.0
35.035.9
Auto8.4
Teleop26.3
End1.8
Second
6404
#24
11.43.0
13.410.4
Auto3.0
Teleop6.7
End1.7
blue by 19.0
7033
#14
30.41.0
29.730.7
Auto6.8
Teleop17.1
End6.4
Third
10.13.9
16.112.1
Auto3.6
Teleop3.3
End3.2
blue by 5.5
9175
#27
15.61.0
13.614.6
Auto2.4
Teleop10.7
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
69%Auto oddsMissed72%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
72%Barge oddsEarned59%Barge oddsEarned