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Red54
921920.6
916923.3
888229.0
Blue66
640411.4
916821.7
908527.3
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions906202040801001201401605466

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+14
Endgame+12
Fouls+12
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave9
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points7
9Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +7
7Coral scored#11
25Coral points40
2Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
12Processor points0
4Net points8
16Algae points8
41Total teleop48
Reef
4L4#5
1L3#3
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
11Game pieces#14
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +12
0Foul points0
54Total score66

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8882
#29
29.01.7
31.729.9
Auto3.9
Teleop22.7
End2.4
red by 1.7
9085
#12
27.30.4
26.326.8
Auto6.5
Teleop18.7
End2.2
Second
9169
#13
23.31.7
25.523.8
Auto4.3
Teleop11.4
End7.6
red by 1.6
9168
#15
21.70.5
22.122.6
Auto4.3
Teleop15.8
End1.5
Third
9219
#23
20.61.7
22.821.1
Auto4.0
Teleop16.3
End0.3
red by 9.2
6404
#24
11.40.4
11.011.4
Auto3.0
Teleop6.7
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsMissed38%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
58%Barge oddsMissed13%Barge oddsMissed