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Red10
61888.1
997721.5
999112.2
Blue8
997315.9
94497.4
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions422406080100108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
0Teleop0
+2Endgame
+2Fouls
Autonomouslevel
6Leave6
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto6
Teleoperatedlevel
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
0Total teleop0
Reef
0L4#0
0L3#0
0L2#0
0L1 · trough#0
0Game pieces#0
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +2
0Foul points0
10Total score8

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.52.8
14.611.7
Auto4.0
Teleop14.3
End3.0
red by 5.5
15.91.7
4.12.5
Auto3.9
Teleop5.6
End6.3
Second
12.22.8
9.66.7
Auto3.7
Teleop6.3
End2.1
red by 4.6
7.51.0
9.28.2
Auto4.1
Teleop1.5
End2.1
Third
6188
#13
8.11.7
11.49.7
Auto1.8
Teleop4.9
End1.4
red by 0.7
7.41.0
9.68.6
Auto1.9
Teleop3.9
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsMissed21%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsMissed32%Barge oddsMissed