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Red68
442159.4
999112.2
99995.0
Blue30
927726.7
61888.1
462720.3
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions555330354045506065706830

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+48Teleop
+50Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
0Leave0
5Coral scored#1
26Coral points6
26Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +28
7Coral scored#2
26Coral points8
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
36Total teleop8
Reef
3L4#2
3L3#1
3L2#0
3L1 · trough#0
14Game pieces#3
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +38
0Foul points12
68Total score30

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.40.4
53.754.1
Auto15.8
Teleop35.3
End8.3
red by 32.7
26.72.1
19.317.3
Auto6.0
Teleop14.9
End5.9
Second
12.20.6
6.16.7
Auto3.7
Teleop6.3
End2.1
blue by 8.1
4627
#12
20.32.1
20.818.7
Auto5.5
Teleop12.9
End1.9
Third
9999
#11
5.00.6
2.12.7
Auto3.2
Teleop0.3
End1.4
blue by 3.1
6188
#13
8.12.1
9.06.9
Auto1.8
Teleop4.9
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
33%Barge oddsMissed46%Barge oddsMissed