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Red70
99948.5
94497.4
442159.4
Blue37
61888.1
997721.5
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions98240501502007037

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+9Teleop
+21Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave6
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points3
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +2
7Coral scored#4
24Coral points14
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#3
0Processor points0
4Net points12
4Algae points12
28Total teleop26
Reef
3L4#2
3L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#8
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
12Foul points0
70Total score37

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.41.2
54.152.9
Auto15.8
Teleop35.3
End8.3
red by 37.9
21.50.7
12.513.3
Auto4.0
Teleop14.3
End3.0
Second
8.51.8
4.22.4
Auto1.6
Teleop5.9
End1.0
red by 0.5
6188
#13
8.10.5
6.97.4
Auto1.8
Teleop4.9
End1.4
Third
7.41.2
8.27.0
Auto1.9
Teleop3.9
End1.7
blue by 0.1
7.50.5
7.57.9
Auto4.1
Teleop1.5
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsEarned32%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
57%Barge oddsEarned27%Barge oddsMissed