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Red128
997721.5
442159.4
997315.9
Blue48
927726.7
1038422.7
94497.4
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9046020608010012014016012848

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+60Teleop
+78Endgame
+80Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
0Leave3
5Coral scored#1
26Coral points3
26Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +40
12Coral scored#8
44Coral points28
2Processor algae#0
5Net algae#2
12Processor points0
20Net points8
32Algae points8
76Total teleop36
Reef
5L4#4
6L3#3
3L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
24Game pieces#11
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +80
2Foul points0
128Total score48

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.42.7
52.955.7
Auto15.8
Teleop35.3
End8.3
red by 32.7
26.70.9
17.316.4
Auto6.0
Teleop14.9
End5.9
Second
21.53.9
13.317.2
Auto4.0
Teleop14.3
End3.0
blue by 1.3
22.70.9
19.518.6
Auto3.5
Teleop14.8
End4.4
Third
15.93.9
2.46.3
Auto3.9
Teleop5.6
End6.3
red by 8.5
7.40.9
7.06.2
Auto1.9
Teleop3.9
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
40%Auto oddsEarned60%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
39%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed