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Red51
997721.5
997315.9
462720.3
Blue70
486215.1
442159.4
24%Model gave it76%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions438101001505170

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+29
Endgame+17
Fouls+19
AutonomousBlue +11
3Leave6
2Coral scored#4
12Coral points20
15Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +18
4Coral scored#7
14Coral points24
1Processor algae#1
0Net algae#2
6Processor points6
0Net points8
6Algae points14
20Total teleop38
Reef
2L4#5
2L3#3
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
7Game pieces#14
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +19
0Foul points2
51Total score70

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.50.9
17.218.1
Auto4.0
Teleop14.3
End3.0
blue by 37.9
59.40.4
55.755.3
Auto15.8
Teleop35.3
End8.3
Second
4627
#12
20.30.7
17.718.3
Auto5.5
Teleop12.9
End1.9
red by 5.1
15.10.4
11.511.1
Auto4.2
Teleop10.8
End0.2
Third
15.90.9
6.37.2
Auto3.9
Teleop5.6
End6.3
red by 8.4
7.50.4
6.96.5
Auto4.1
Teleop1.5
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
37%Auto oddsEarned60%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsEarned64%Barge oddsMissed