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Red39
61888.1
99995.0
927726.7
Blue54
99948.5
442159.4
2%Model gave it98%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions790501001503954

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+21
Endgame+9
Fouls+15
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave6
2Coral scored#2
10Coral points10
13Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +18
2Coral scored#5
6Coral points18
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
0Processor points6
4Net points4
4Algae points10
10Total teleop28
Reef
1L4#2
1L3#3
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#9
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +15
0Foul points6
39Total score54

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
26.70.9
16.617.5
Auto6.0
Teleop14.9
End5.9
blue by 32.7
59.41.1
55.354.1
Auto15.8
Teleop35.3
End8.3
Second
6188
#13
8.10.9
7.38.2
Auto1.8
Teleop4.9
End1.4
blue by 0.5
8.51.5
3.41.9
Auto1.6
Teleop5.9
End1.0
Third
9999
#11
5.01.1
1.42.5
Auto3.2
Teleop0.3
End1.4
blue by 2.6
7.51.1
6.55.3
Auto4.1
Teleop1.5
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
57%Auto oddsEarned52%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsEarned77%Barge oddsMissed