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Red105
442159.4
94497.4
9998-1.6
Blue137
999112.2
927726.7
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions69350206080100120140160105137

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+24Teleop
+24Endgame
Fouls+32
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave0
2Coral scored#3
8Coral points13
17Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +20
10Coral scored#6
36Coral points20
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
54Total teleop34
Reef
3L4#3
4L3#3
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#12
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +32
18Foul points74
105Total score137

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.42.1
52.154.2
Auto15.8
Teleop35.3
End8.3
red by 32.7
26.71.7
19.821.5
Auto6.0
Teleop14.9
End5.9
Second
7.42.1
4.66.7
Auto1.9
Teleop3.9
End1.7
blue by 4.8
12.21.7
8.19.8
Auto3.7
Teleop6.3
End2.1
Third
9998
#14
-1.62.1
-3.7-1.6
Auto0.1
Teleop-2.6
End0.8
blue by 9.2
7.51.7
6.27.9
Auto4.1
Teleop1.5
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
44%Auto oddsMissed50%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
55%Barge oddsEarned56%Barge oddsEarned