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Red56
94497.4
486215.1
462720.3
Blue17
927726.7
99948.5
997315.9
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6869204060801005617

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+15Auto
+45Teleop
+39Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousRed +15
6Leave3
2Coral scored#0
12Coral points0
18Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +30
6Coral scored#2
20Coral points8
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#0
6Processor points0
12Net points0
18Algae points0
38Total teleop8
Reef
2L4#1
2L3#1
2L2#0
2L1 · trough#0
12Game pieces#2
BargeBlue +6
0Cage & park6
0Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +39
0Foul points0
56Total score17

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4627
#12
20.30.4
27.427.0
Auto5.5
Teleop12.9
End1.9
blue by 6.5
26.71.8
26.124.3
Auto6.0
Teleop14.9
End5.9
Second
15.10.4
17.917.4
Auto4.2
Teleop10.8
End0.2
blue by 0.8
15.93.0
8.35.3
Auto3.9
Teleop5.6
End6.3
Third
7.40.4
11.511.0
Auto1.9
Teleop3.9
End1.7
blue by 1.1
8.53.0
4.51.5
Auto1.6
Teleop5.9
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned67%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
15%Barge oddsMissed83%Barge oddsMissed