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Red177
441574.8
68734.6
519969.7
Blue196
84663.4
412353.9
116039.1
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions188153100200250177196

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+21
Endgame+19
Fouls+19
AutonomousBlue +14
6Leave6
6Coral scored#9
31Coral points45
37Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +7
25Coral scored#23
90Coral points83
3Processor algae#4
4Net algae#6
18Processor points24
16Net points24
34Algae points48
124Total teleop131
Reef
11L4#11
11L3#11
6L2#6
3L1 · trough#4
38Game pieces#42
BargeRed +2
14Cage & park12
14Total endgame12
Penalties & totalBlue +19
2Foul points2
177Total score196

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
74.80.1
74.474.3
Auto15.7
Teleop49.3
End9.8
red by 11.5
846
#5
63.41.0
61.662.5
Auto13.5
Teleop46.8
End3.0
Second
5199
#19
69.70.1
69.369.2
Auto13.5
Teleop46.1
End10.1
red by 15.9
4123
#16
53.91.0
52.153.0
Auto14.3
Teleop37.8
End1.8
Third
687
#28
34.60.1
34.134.0
Auto7.5
Teleop22.6
End4.5
blue by 4.5
1160
#25
39.11.0
37.338.2
Auto8.8
Teleop26.4
End3.8