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Red113
68734.6
151531.3
263741.1
Blue114
366944.2
170025.2
1021334.7
44%Model gave it56%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions96996080120140113114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
Teleop+11
Endgame+1
Fouls+1
AutonomousBlue +1
0Leave9
6Coral scored#4
29Coral points21
29Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +10
11Coral scored#11
40Coral points38
1Processor algae#3
3Net algae#3
6Processor points18
12Net points12
18Algae points30
58Total teleop68
Reef
8L4#4
4L3#5
2L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#21
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
2Foul points2
113Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.11.5
35.637.1
Auto11.1
Teleop25.9
End4.1
blue by 3.1
3669
#15
44.21.3
38.940.3
Auto8.7
Teleop29.2
End6.3
Second
687
#28
34.61.5
31.232.7
Auto7.5
Teleop22.6
End4.5
blue by 0.1
34.72.2
35.037.2
Auto7.5
Teleop24.7
End2.4
Third
1515
#34
31.31.5
21.523.0
Auto4.4
Teleop19.7
End7.2
red by 6.1
1700
#14
25.21.3
17.919.3
Auto5.5
Teleop16.3
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
69%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
57%Barge oddsEarned42%Barge oddsEarned