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Red115
399323.6
586918.2
347659.1
Blue72
392513.2
59942.6
947118.8
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions94682040608012014016011572

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+43Teleop
+55Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
9Leave0
3Coral scored#2
14Coral points12
23Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +32
15Coral scored#10
54Coral points36
1Processor algae#0
4Net algae#2
6Processor points0
16Net points8
22Algae points8
76Total teleop44
Reef
7L4#3
6L3#3
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
23Game pieces#14
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +43
0Foul points12
115Total score72

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.12.4
47.249.6
Auto11.7
Teleop40.1
End7.3
red by 16.4
599
#30
42.60.1
36.536.4
Auto8.5
Teleop32.9
End1.2
Second
3993
#24
23.64.0
17.021.0
Auto4.8
Teleop15.1
End3.7
red by 4.9
9471
#39
18.80.2
14.213.9
Auto3.4
Teleop16.2
End-0.8
Third
5869
#31
18.22.4
14.717.1
Auto2.7
Teleop13.0
End2.5
red by 4.9
3925
#40
13.20.1
11.411.3
Auto2.8
Teleop7.4
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
50%Auto oddsEarned33%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
48%Barge oddsEarned14%Barge oddsMissed