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Red144
84663.4
366944.2
263741.1
Blue144
399323.6
583524.5
519969.7
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions146111100200144144

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+10Teleop
+2Endgame
0Fouls0
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave6
8Coral scored#5
40Coral points24
40Total auto30
Teleoperatedlevel
17Coral scored#18
62Coral points64
2Processor algae#3
6Net algae#4
12Processor points18
24Net points16
36Algae points34
98Total teleop98
Reef
8L4#6
11L3#7
3L2#6
3L1 · trough#4
33Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totallevel
0Foul points2
144Total score144

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
846
#5
63.4
Auto13.5
Teleop46.8
End3.0
blue by 6.4
5199
#19
69.7
Auto13.5
Teleop46.1
End10.1
Second
3669
#15
44.2
Auto8.7
Teleop29.2
End6.3
red by 19.6
5835
#29
24.5
Auto6.3
Teleop16.8
End1.4
Third
41.1
Auto11.1
Teleop25.9
End4.1
red by 17.5
3993
#24
23.6
Auto4.8
Teleop15.1
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned82%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
57%Barge oddsMissed91%Barge oddsEarned