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Red79
254351.3
2218.9
744716.7
Blue75
586918.2
852120.6
68734.6
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11786501001507975

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+8
+4Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points6
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +11
10Coral scored#13
37Coral points48
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
51Total teleop62
Reef
5L4#4
4L3#5
2L2#3
1L1 · trough#2
15Game pieces#17
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
0Foul points0
79Total score75

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.31.5
53.051.5
Auto4.1
Teleop36.6
End10.5
red by 16.7
687
#28
34.60.4
33.132.7
Auto7.5
Teleop22.6
End4.5
Second
22
#22
18.92.0
22.020.0
Auto3.8
Teleop11.4
End3.6
blue by 1.8
8521
#36
20.60.4
21.220.8
Auto2.9
Teleop16.7
End1.0
Third
7447
#18
16.71.5
18.416.8
Auto5.2
Teleop8.7
End2.8
blue by 1.5
5869
#31
18.20.4
18.117.7
Auto2.7
Teleop13.0
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
73%Auto oddsEarned34%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
85%Barge oddsEarned44%Barge oddsMissed