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Red186
623857.5
135149.6
285431.2
Blue38
19924.9
97819.8
417112.8
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13743010015020018638

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+52Teleop
+64Endgame
+148Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave3
5Coral scored#3
23Coral points13
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +45
11Coral scored#4
41Coral points14
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
12Processor points6
12Net points0
24Algae points6
65Total teleop20
Reef
4L4#2
5L3#2
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#8
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +148
84Foul points0
186Total score38

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.51.1
40.639.5
Auto8.1
Teleop41.5
End7.8
red by 32.6
199
#8
24.90.8
20.719.9
Auto6.1
Teleop17.8
End1.0
Second
1351
#18
49.61.1
46.845.7
Auto16.2
Teleop31.6
End1.7
red by 36.8
4171
#48
12.81.3
15.614.3
Auto5.8
Teleop4.8
End2.1
Third
2854
#21
31.21.1
28.727.6
Auto6.2
Teleop22.7
End2.3
red by 21.4
9781
#42DQ
9.81.3
13.412.1
Auto3.7
Teleop4.3
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
60%Auto oddsEarned17%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
71%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed