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Red157
1024619.6
214124.7
25490.2
Blue101
605925.9
64933.2
348249.8
76%Model gave it24%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13710850150200157101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+44Teleop
+58Endgame
+56Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
6Leave6
7Coral scored#3
34Coral points16
40Total auto22
TeleoperatedRed +26
23Coral scored#16
81Coral points59
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
6Processor points6
16Net points12
22Algae points18
103Total teleop77
Reef
10L4#9
7L3#4
6L2#3
7L1 · trough#3
35Game pieces#23
BargeRed +14
14Cage & park0
14Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +56
0Foul points2
157Total score101

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
254
#1
90.22.5
83.385.8
Auto20.8
Teleop59.0
End10.5
red by 40.4
3482
#14
49.80.1
47.547.4
Auto12.8
Teleop35.8
End1.3
Second
2141
#27
24.74.2
21.625.7
Auto6.8
Teleop16.7
End1.3
blue by 8.5
649
#31
33.20.1
30.029.9
Auto8.5
Teleop22.5
End2.2
Third
19.64.2
14.718.9
Auto6.0
Teleop12.0
End1.6
blue by 6.3
6059
#10
25.90.1
23.423.2
Auto5.2
Teleop18.9
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
48%Coral oddsEarned21%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
74%Barge oddsEarned38%Barge oddsMissed