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Red154
427079.9
592429.4
920211.1
Blue35
1022112.2
214124.7
97819.8
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14155010020015435

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+35Auto
+97Teleop
+107Endgame
+119Fouls
AutonomousRed +35
3Leave3
8Coral scored#1
41Coral points6
44Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +62
16Coral scored#3
56Coral points12
3Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
18Processor points0
8Net points8
26Algae points8
82Total teleop20
Reef
10L4#2
5L3#1
5L2#1
4L1 · trough#0
29Game pieces#6
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +119
12Foul points0
154Total score35

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.91.9
75.577.4
Auto17.9
Teleop51.3
End10.7
red by 55.2
2141
#27
24.72.3
25.723.4
Auto6.8
Teleop16.7
End1.3
Second
5924
#15
29.41.9
27.629.4
Auto8.6
Teleop17.6
End3.2
red by 17.1
12.22.3
16.213.9
Auto1.8
Teleop8.6
End1.7
Third
9202
#44
11.13.1
10.813.9
Auto4.4
Teleop5.4
End1.3
red by 1.3
9781
#42
9.82.3
13.911.6
Auto3.7
Teleop4.3
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned57%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
46%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
80%Barge oddsEarned36%Barge oddsMissed