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Red131
76651.7
64933.2
135149.6
Blue159
623857.5
25322.4
550764.3
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions142148100120160180200131159

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+26
Endgame+28
Fouls+28
Autonomouslevel
6Leave3
6Coral scored#7
31Coral points34
37Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +26
12Coral scored#18
42Coral points66
2Processor algae#3
7Net algae#6
12Processor points18
28Net points24
40Algae points42
82Total teleop108
Reef
9L4#9
3L3#8
4L2#6
2L1 · trough#2
27Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +2
12Cage & park14
12Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +28
0Foul points0
131Total score159

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
766
#22
51.70.2
50.250.0
Auto7.4
Teleop38.4
End5.9
blue by 12.6
64.31.7
59.360.9
Auto19.3
Teleop37.1
End7.9
Second
1351
#18
49.60.2
49.749.6
Auto16.2
Teleop31.6
End1.7
blue by 7.9
57.51.7
54.155.8
Auto8.1
Teleop41.5
End7.8
Third
649
#31
33.20.2
33.433.2
Auto8.5
Teleop22.5
End2.2
red by 10.9
253
#25
22.41.7
20.722.4
Auto3.0
Teleop16.7
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
27%Coral oddsMissed16%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
58%Barge oddsMissed89%Barge oddsEarned