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Red187
803377.4
879338.4
97258.5
Blue172
623857.5
76651.7
517144.8
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions176160100120140200220240260187172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+5
+9Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave3
7Coral scored#7
37Coral points33
40Total auto36
TeleoperatedBlue +9
27Coral scored#26
97Coral points92
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#5
12Processor points18
12Net points20
24Algae points38
121Total teleop130
Reef
17L4#7
7L3#13
4L2#8
6L1 · trough#5
39Game pieces#41
BargeRed +14
20Cage & park6
20Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +15
6Foul points0
187Total score172

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.40.4
74.074.4
Auto21.1
Teleop48.4
End8.0
red by 19.9
57.50.4
57.057.5
Auto8.1
Teleop41.5
End7.8
Second
972
#4
58.50.4
55.155.5
Auto11.1
Teleop38.1
End9.3
red by 6.8
766
#22
51.70.4
51.351.7
Auto7.4
Teleop38.4
End5.9
Third
8793
#26
38.40.4
35.035.4
Auto11.6
Teleop22.6
End4.2
blue by 6.4
5171
#13
44.80.4
44.444.8
Auto10.9
Teleop26.8
End7.1