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Red176
623857.5
76651.7
517144.8
Blue153
348249.8
466930.2
947049.1
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions168131100150200250176153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+3
+5Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave9
7Coral scored#7
33Coral points33
39Total auto42
Teleoperatedlevel
20Coral scored#23
71Coral points81
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
18Processor points12
16Net points12
34Algae points24
105Total teleop105
Reef
8L4#11
9L3#9
6L2#4
4L1 · trough#6
34Game pieces#35
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +23
18Foul points0
176Total score153

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.50.1
56.957.0
Auto8.1
Teleop41.5
End7.8
red by 7.6
3482
#14
49.80.6
49.249.8
Auto12.8
Teleop35.8
End1.3
Second
766
#22
51.70.1
51.251.3
Auto7.4
Teleop38.4
End5.9
red by 2.6
9470
#16
49.10.6
48.549.1
Auto12.5
Teleop36.0
End0.6
Third
5171
#13
44.80.1
44.344.4
Auto10.9
Teleop26.8
End7.1
red by 14.6
30.20.6
29.630.2
Auto5.9
Teleop22.3
End2.0