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Red197
473881.2
114831.6
119762.8
Blue131
325556.4
364745.4
656053.6
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18212850100150200250300197131

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+28Teleop
+48Endgame
+66Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave0
10Coral scored#7
48Coral points37
51Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +14
14Coral scored#16
52Coral points56
3Processor algae#2
8Net algae#5
18Processor points12
32Net points20
50Algae points32
102Total teleop88
Reef
7L4#8
7L3#6
7L2#6
3L1 · trough#3
35Game pieces#30
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +66
18Foul points0
197Total score131

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.21.2
69.570.7
Auto24.6
Teleop45.5
End11.2
red by 24.8
3255
#24
56.40.2
49.749.9
Auto7.3
Teleop42.9
End6.3
Second
1197
#15
62.81.2
58.059.2
Auto18.4
Teleop37.1
End7.3
red by 9.2
6560
#33
53.60.2
46.947.2
Auto11.8
Teleop33.2
End8.5
Third
1148
#21
31.61.2
33.334.5
Auto7.7
Teleop19.2
End4.7
blue by 13.8
3647
#26
45.40.2
31.031.2
Auto9.5
Teleop35.1
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
26%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
62%Barge oddsEarned38%Barge oddsMissed