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Red142
441572.5
114831.6
441955.0
Blue37
961518.1
271037.2
744721.2
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1987205010015025030014237

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+97Teleop
+105Endgame
+105Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
9Leave0
6Coral scored#2
28Coral points9
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +69
16Coral scored#5
57Coral points18
3Processor algae#0
4Net algae#1
18Processor points0
16Net points4
34Algae points4
91Total teleop22
Reef
8L4#3
5L3#2
6L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
29Game pieces#8
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +105
0Foul points0
142Total score37

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4415
#17
72.51.4
77.576.1
Auto14.3
Teleop49.8
End8.4
red by 35.3
2710
#18
37.22.7
35.232.5
Auto5.6
Teleop25.4
End6.2
Second
4419
#16
55.01.4
52.751.2
Auto10.9
Teleop36.3
End7.8
red by 33.8
7447
#34
21.22.7
21.318.6
Auto6.8
Teleop12.0
End2.4
Third
1148
#21
31.61.4
33.532.0
Auto7.7
Teleop19.2
End4.7
red by 13.5
9615
#40
18.12.7
21.118.4
Auto5.0
Teleop10.0
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned63%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
28%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
85%Barge oddsMissed37%Barge oddsMissed