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Red193
427633.5
312857.9
519977.8
Blue180
212270.9
39938.3
432262.5
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions171178140160200220193180

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+19
+13Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
9Leave6
3Coral scored#5
17Coral points24
26Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +15
25Coral scored#31
91Coral points112
2Processor algae#3
7Net algae#4
12Processor points18
28Net points16
40Algae points34
131Total teleop146
Reef
8L4#10
8L3#15
7L2#7
5L1 · trough#4
37Game pieces#43
BargeRed +32
36Cage & park4
36Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
0Foul points0
193Total score180

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.82.2
74.276.4
Auto9.9
Teleop53.6
End14.3
red by 6.9
2122
#12
70.91.0
68.069.0
Auto14.6
Teleop48.3
End7.9
Second
3128
#10
57.92.2
54.256.4
Auto8.8
Teleop38.2
End10.8
blue by 4.6
4322
#22
62.51.0
59.260.1
Auto12.7
Teleop48.7
End1.1
Third
4276
#39
33.52.2
31.333.5
Auto5.6
Teleop22.5
End5.4
blue by 4.8
399
#32
38.31.0
38.139.1
Auto6.9
Teleop26.3
End5.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned85%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
61%Coral oddsEarned62%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
98%Barge oddsEarned77%Barge oddsMissed