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Red197
723041.2
325556.4
441955.0
Blue98
622020.3
183632.5
49872.9
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1551425010020025019798

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+87Teleop
+81Endgame
+99Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave6
5Coral scored#6
24Coral points28
30Total auto34
TeleoperatedRed +91
25Coral scored#12
89Coral points42
3Processor algae#1
9Net algae#1
18Processor points6
36Net points4
54Algae points10
143Total teleop52
Reef
14L4#7
7L3#4
6L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
42Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +6
6Cage & park12
6Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +99
18Foul points0
197Total score98

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3255
#24
56.42.2
52.955.1
Auto7.3
Teleop42.9
End6.3
blue by 16.5
498
#3
72.92.5
74.471.9
Auto15.0
Teleop47.9
End10.0
Second
4419
#16
55.02.2
51.553.7
Auto10.9
Teleop36.3
End7.8
red by 22.5
1836
#41
32.52.5
35.032.5
Auto6.6
Teleop21.7
End4.2
Third
7230
#14
41.22.2
39.041.2
Auto11.9
Teleop26.9
End2.5
red by 20.9
6220
#38
20.32.5
22.820.3
Auto5.3
Teleop11.8
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsEarned49%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsEarned84%Barge oddsMissed