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Red59
325730.1
167146.7
876827.7
Blue79
661945.5
70120.6
947036.0
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1141080501502002505979

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+22
Endgame+20
Fouls+20
AutonomousBlue +10
6Leave0
1Coral scored#4
3Coral points19
9Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +12
6Coral scored#8
22Coral points28
1Processor algae#0
0Net algae#3
6Processor points0
0Net points12
6Algae points12
28Total teleop40
Reef
3L4#4
1L3#4
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
8Game pieces#15
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +20
6Foul points6
59Total score79

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1671
#16
46.73.3
47.844.6
Auto12.0
Teleop31.7
End2.9
red by 1.2
6619
#11
45.51.9
39.938.0
Auto5.3
Teleop35.6
End4.6
Second
3257
#36
30.13.3
24.621.3
Auto-0.1
Teleop28.4
End1.7
blue by 5.9
9470
#10
36.01.9
36.935.0
Auto10.8
Teleop22.7
End2.5
Third
8768
#29
27.73.3
30.026.7
Auto3.6
Teleop22.6
End1.5
red by 7.1
701
#22
20.61.9
24.822.8
Auto2.5
Teleop17.0
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
56%Auto oddsMissed63%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
20%Coral oddsMissed37%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsEarned26%Barge oddsEarned