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Red202
594079.2
681427.7
84170.5
Blue148
570027.9
581754.5
415945.9
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions208122050100150250300202148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+28Teleop
+52Endgame
+54Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave0
9Coral scored#5
44Coral points27
44Total auto27
TeleoperatedRed +11
23Coral scored#18
82Coral points65
2Processor algae#3
9Net algae#9
12Processor points18
36Net points36
48Algae points54
130Total teleop119
Reef
11L4#10
10L3#4
5L2#4
6L1 · trough#5
43Game pieces#35
BargeRed +24
26Cage & park2
26Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +54
2Foul points0
202Total score148

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.20.7
83.984.6
Auto18.4
Teleop51.3
End9.5
red by 24.8
5817
#19
54.51.2
55.756.9
Auto6.9
Teleop47.2
End0.4
Second
841
#4
70.50.7
64.264.9
Auto16.3
Teleop42.6
End11.6
red by 24.6
4159
#20
45.91.2
38.539.8
Auto13.0
Teleop30.8
End2.1
Third
6814
#14
27.70.7
30.431.1
Auto5.7
Teleop21.0
End1.0
blue by 0.2
5700
#38
27.91.2
24.025.2
Auto7.6
Teleop20.1
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned82%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
72%Coral oddsEarned19%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
92%Barge oddsEarned14%Barge oddsMissed