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Red178
207357.5
359834.0
469844.8
Blue172
325730.1
213561.7
11440.8
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions135134100120140160180178172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
Teleop+30
+2Endgame
+6Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave0
10Coral scored#6
52Coral points30
58Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +58
16Coral scored#24
58Coral points88
1Processor algae#5
4Net algae#5
6Processor points30
16Net points20
22Algae points50
80Total teleop138
Reef
10L4#9
7L3#9
6L2#6
3L1 · trough#6
31Game pieces#40
BargeRed +32
36Cage & park4
36Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +6
4Foul points0
178Total score172

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.51.1
53.554.6
Auto15.8
Teleop32.8
End8.8
blue by 4.2
2135
#13
61.71.0
59.660.7
Auto18.2
Teleop42.0
End1.5
Second
44.81.1
40.841.9
Auto17.6
Teleop19.5
End7.8
red by 4.0
114
#7
40.81.0
38.739.7
Auto13.1
Teleop25.2
End2.5
Third
3598
#17
34.01.1
31.132.1
Auto11.4
Teleop13.6
End9.1
red by 4.0
3257
#36
30.11.0
28.029.0
Auto-0.1
Teleop28.4
End1.7