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Red190
107257.1
25327.5
84170.5
Blue143
167146.7
801642.0
264337.4
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions161132050100200250300350400190143

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+23Teleop
+41Endgame
+47Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
0Leave6
8Coral scored#2
41Coral points10
41Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +2
23Coral scored#16
81Coral points59
3Processor algae#7
5Net algae#5
18Processor points42
20Net points20
38Algae points62
119Total teleop121
Reef
12L4#7
6L3#3
8L2#5
5L1 · trough#3
39Game pieces#30
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +47
6Foul points0
190Total score143

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
841
#4
70.50.9
67.167.9
Auto16.3
Teleop42.6
End11.6
red by 23.8
1671
#16
46.70.5
45.646.0
Auto12.0
Teleop31.7
End2.9
Second
1072
#12
57.10.9
53.754.5
Auto16.0
Teleop32.1
End8.9
red by 15.1
42.00.5
40.941.3
Auto7.6
Teleop30.8
End3.6
Third
253
#25
27.50.9
24.125.0
Auto4.8
Teleop21.7
End1.0
blue by 9.9
2643
#15
37.40.5
36.336.7
Auto3.2
Teleop32.6
End1.6