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Red183
84669.1
304572.2
476526.5
Blue189
107260.1
264328.7
84167.4
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions182160100150200250183189

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
0Teleop0
0Endgame0
Fouls+6
AutonomousRed +6
3Leave6
8Coral scored#6
40Coral points31
43Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +6
24Coral scored#25
86Coral points90
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#3
12Processor points18
16Net points12
28Algae points30
114Total teleop120
Reef
10L4#11
10L3#8
7L2#8
5L1 · trough#4
38Game pieces#37
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +6
0Foul points6
183Total score189

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.20.4
71.672.0
Auto19.0
Teleop42.3
End11.0
red by 4.8
841
#4
67.40.7
65.666.4
Auto14.9
Teleop42.5
End10.0
Second
846
#11
69.10.4
68.468.8
Auto15.8
Teleop46.9
End6.3
red by 8.9
60.10.7
58.359.1
Auto18.1
Teleop33.5
End8.4
Third
4765
#35
26.50.4
25.826.2
Auto5.7
Teleop19.7
End1.1
blue by 2.2
2643
#27
28.70.7
26.927.6
Auto3.4
Teleop24.4
End0.9