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Red103
76644.3
605924.5
11537.4
Blue39
666538.3
724510.5
510426.3
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1209305015020010339

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+52Teleop
+60Endgame
+64Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
0Leave6
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points3
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +48
11Coral scored#4
40Coral points16
2Processor algae#0
5Net algae#2
12Processor points0
20Net points8
32Algae points8
72Total teleop24
Reef
6L4#2
3L3#1
2L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#7
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +64
4Foul points0
103Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
766
#9
44.30.4
43.943.5
Auto5.9
Teleop32.3
End6.1
red by 6.0
6665
#12
38.33.1
33.530.4
Auto6.2
Teleop23.8
End8.4
Second
115
#14
37.40.4
35.334.9
Auto7.0
Teleop27.6
End2.9
red by 11.2
5104
#25
26.33.1
39.836.8
Auto3.4
Teleop19.1
End3.8
Third
6059
#30
24.50.4
25.425.0
Auto3.8
Teleop18.9
End1.8
red by 14.0
7245
#32
10.53.1
11.88.7
Auto3.4
Teleop6.8
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsMissed85%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed33%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
64%Barge oddsEarned81%Barge oddsMissed