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Red155
499018.8
84167.4
107260.1
Blue93
476526.5
666538.3
696243.1
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1699605015020015593

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+26Teleop
+26Endgame
+62Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave0
8Coral scored#5
40Coral points26
40Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +12
14Coral scored#14
49Coral points51
1Processor algae#0
5Net algae#3
6Processor points0
20Net points12
26Algae points12
75Total teleop63
Reef
9L4#6
6L3#4
4L2#6
3L1 · trough#3
28Game pieces#22
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +62
36Foul points0
155Total score93

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
841
#4
67.41.5
57.155.5
Auto14.9
Teleop42.5
End10.0
red by 24.3
6962
#24
43.10.1
35.935.8
Auto12.2
Teleop31.8
End-0.8
Second
60.11.5
62.861.3
Auto18.1
Teleop33.5
End8.4
red by 21.8
6665
#12
38.30.1
30.430.3
Auto6.2
Teleop23.8
End8.4
Third
4990
#31
18.81.5
22.020.5
Auto3.7
Teleop14.5
End0.6
blue by 7.7
4765
#35
26.50.1
28.428.3
Auto5.7
Teleop19.7
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned70%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
37%Coral oddsEarned33%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
70%Barge oddsMissed43%Barge oddsMissed