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Red174
196737.2
603650.8
304572.2
Blue55
724510.5
325653.9
418616.8
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1949105015025017455

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+42Auto
+115Teleop
+113Endgame
+119Fouls
AutonomousRed +42
3Leave6
10Coral scored#1
48Coral points3
51Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +73
19Coral scored#6
67Coral points20
2Processor algae#1
6Net algae#1
12Processor points6
24Net points4
36Algae points10
103Total teleop30
Reef
11L4#2
9L3#2
6L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
37Game pieces#9
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +119
6Foul points0
174Total score55

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.20.6
66.266.8
Auto19.0
Teleop42.3
End11.0
red by 18.4
3256
#17
53.92.4
55.953.5
Auto12.9
Teleop32.9
End8.1
Second
50.80.6
54.455.0
Auto12.5
Teleop35.2
End3.2
red by 34.1
4186
#28
16.82.4
20.618.2
Auto2.6
Teleop12.7
End1.5
Third
1967
#16
37.20.6
35.736.3
Auto11.3
Teleop24.9
End1.0
red by 26.7
7245
#32
10.52.4
12.09.6
Auto3.4
Teleop6.8
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned47%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
73%Coral oddsEarned13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
47%Barge oddsEarned28%Barge oddsEarned