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Red89
666538.3
543013.6
490425.6
Blue83
170015.0
605924.5
196737.2
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8079506070901001101208983

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+4Teleop
+12Endgame
+6Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
9Leave6
1Coral scored#3
3Coral points13
12Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +11
14Coral scored#11
49Coral points38
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
63Total teleop52
Reef
5L4#7
4L3#4
3L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#17
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
0Foul points6
89Total score83

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6665
#12
38.31.1
36.237.3
Auto6.2
Teleop23.8
End8.4
red by 1.2
1967
#16
37.20.2
35.135.3
Auto11.3
Teleop24.9
End1.0
Second
4904
#19
25.61.1
23.925.0
Auto4.1
Teleop20.5
End1.0
red by 1.1
6059
#30
24.50.2
24.324.5
Auto3.8
Teleop18.9
End1.8
Third
5430
#34
13.61.1
12.513.6
Auto3.5
Teleop8.2
End1.8
blue by 1.4
1700
#38
15.00.2
14.815.0
Auto3.9
Teleop7.9
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsEarned73%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
19%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsEarned27%Barge oddsEarned